BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 9, 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 9, 2025

Introduction

On January 9, 2025, the BTC/USDT pair shows significant volatility. The current spot price of Bitcoin is **$94,337**, reflecting a **2.14%** drop in the last 24 hours. The trading volume over the same period reached **$65.57 billion**, indicating strong market activity. (Binance)

Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe

• **Support Levels**:

 * **$90,000** — key support level.
 * **$85,000** — secondary support level in case of further decline.

• **Resistance Levels**:

 * **$100,000** — psychological resistance level.
 * **$105,000** — previous high area.

• **Moving Averages (MA)**:

 * **MA 50**: above **MA 200**, confirming a long-term uptrend.
 * **MA 200**: acts as a long-term support line.

• **Indicators**:

 * **RSI**: **55** — indicates a neutral zone.
 * **MACD**: in the positive zone, but lines are converging, signaling potential weakening of upward momentum.
 * **Fibonacci Levels**:
   * **38.2%** — **$92,000**
   * **50%** — **$90,000**
   * **61.8%** — **$88,000**
 * **Bollinger Bands**: widened, indicating high volatility; the price is close to the lower band, suggesting a possible rebound.
 * **ATR (Average True Range)**: rising ATR indicates greater price movement amplitude.
 * **VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)**: price is below VWAP, indicating bearish market sentiment.

• **Elliott Wave Analysis**:

 * The corrective wave (4) may be nearing completion, potentially leading to a new impulsive wave (5) upward.

• **Chart Patterns**:

 * The "double bottom" pattern at **$90,000** could signal a possible upward reversal.

Hourly Timeframe

• **Support Levels**:

 * **$93,000** — nearest support level.
 * **$91,000** — additional support level.

• **Resistance Levels**:

 * **$96,000** — local resistance level.
 * **$98,000** — key resistance level.

• **Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)**:

 * **EMA 50**: below **EMA 200**, indicating a short-term downtrend.
 * **EMA 200**: acts as a dynamic resistance line.

• **Indicators**:

 * **RSI**: **45** — weak buying pressure.
 * **MACD**: in the negative zone, confirming selling pressure.

• **Fibonacci Levels**:

 * **38.2%** — **$94,500**
 * **50%** — **$93,500**
 * **61.8%** — **$92,500**

• **Bollinger Bands**: narrowing, indicating an impending sharp price movement.
• **ATR**: declining ATR suggests lower short-term volatility.
• **VWAP**: the price hovers around VWAP, reflecting market uncertainty.

• **Elliott Wave Analysis**:

 * A corrective wave (B) may be forming, followed by a continuation of the downward trend.

• **Chart Patterns**:

 * A "descending triangle" pattern may indicate a potential breakout downward.

Volume Analysis

Open Interest and Liquidations

According to Coinglass:

• **Open Interest** in the BTC/USDT futures market: **$5.8 billion** — indicating strong interest from traders.
• **Total liquidations in the last 24 hours**: **$200 million**.

 * **Long Positions**: **$120 million** (60%).
 * **Short Positions**: **$80 million** (40%).

Options Data

As reported by Deribit:

• **Next expiration date**: **January 15, 2025**
• **Total open interest for options**: **$1.2 billion**
• **Call/Put ratio**: **1.5** — indicating bullish sentiment.
• **Max Pain level**: **$100,000**
• **Key strike prices**: **$95,000**, **$100,000**, **$105,000**

Liquidation Table

**Liquidations at Key BTC/USDT Price Levels**

Price	Total Liquidation Value	Long/Short Ratio
**$97,500**	**$180 million**	**60% Long / 40% Short**
**$98,000**	**$120 million**	**55% Long / 45% Short**
**$99,000**	**$220 million**	**70% Long / 30% Short**

Forecast and Strategy

Recommendations

• **Recommended Position**: Long (buy).
• **Entry Points**:

 * **$93,500** — first entry point after correction.
 * **$91,000** — additional entry point near support level.

• **Take-Profit Level**: **$105,000**
• **Stop-Loss Level**: **$92,000**

Example Trade

• **Capital**: **1,000 USDT**, leverage **20x**
• **Position Size**: **$20,000**
• **Risk/Reward Ratio**: **1:3**
• **Expected Profit**: **$3,500 USDT**
• **Potential Loss**: **$1,500 USDT**

Fundamental Analysis

• **USA**: The latest FED report suggests that interest rates may remain at **5%**, which could exert market pressure.
• **Eurozone**: Positive economic data supports demand for riskier assets.
• **Large Transactions**: **10,000 BTC** (valued at **$990 million**) were withdrawn from Binance last week, potentially indicating reduced selling pressure.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT market remains highly volatile, with a strong likelihood of the current trend continuing. Traders are advised to monitor liquidation levels and prepare for short-term corrections.

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