Futuros trimestrais

1. 1. Futuros Trimestrais

Introduction

Futuros trimestrais, or quarterly futures, are a cornerstone of the crypto derivatives market, offering traders a unique way to speculate on the future price of a cryptocurrency or to hedge existing positions. Unlike perpetual futures, which don’t have an expiry date, quarterly futures contracts have a fixed settlement date, typically at the end of each calendar quarter (March, June, September, and December). This article provides a comprehensive guide to quarterly futures, covering their mechanics, benefits, risks, and how they differ from other types of crypto futures contracts. It's geared towards beginners, aiming to demystify this important trading instrument.

Understanding Futures Contracts

Before diving into quarterly specifics, let's establish a foundational understanding of futures contracts. A futures contract is a legally binding agreement to buy or sell an asset (in this case, cryptocurrency) at a predetermined price on a specified future date, known as the settlement date.

• **Long Position:** Buying a futures contract means you believe the price of the underlying asset will *increase*. You profit if the price rises above the contract price at settlement.
• **Short Position:** Selling a futures contract means you believe the price of the underlying asset will *decrease*. You profit if the price falls below the contract price at settlement.

The difference between the contract price and the settlement price is the profit or loss realized by the trader. Margin is a crucial concept – you don’t pay the full contract value upfront; instead, you deposit a percentage (the margin) as collateral. This leverage amplifies both potential profits and potential losses.

What are Quarterly Futures?

Quarterly futures are a specific type of futures contract with a defined expiry date falling on the last trading day of a calendar quarter. For example, a BTCUSD Quarterly Futures contract expiring in March will settle on the last trading day of March. These contracts are standardized, meaning the contract size (the amount of cryptocurrency represented by one contract) is fixed by the exchange.

Here's a breakdown of key characteristics:

• **Expiry Date:** Fixed, occurring at the end of March, June, September or December. This is the defining feature.
• **Contract Size:** Determined by the exchange (e.g., 1 BTC, 10 ETH).
• **Tick Size:** The minimum price increment (e.g., $0.10 for BTC).
• **Funding Rate:** Unlike perpetual futures, quarterly futures *do not* have a funding rate. Funding rates are mechanisms to keep the futures price anchored to the spot price in perpetual contracts.
• **Settlement:** On the expiry date, the contract is settled. This can happen either through physical delivery of the underlying asset (rare in crypto) or, more commonly, cash settlement. Cash settlement involves calculating the difference between the contract price and the spot price at settlement, and the corresponding amount is credited or debited to the trader's account.

How do Quarterly Futures Differ from Perpetual Futures?

The primary distinction lies in the expiry date. Here’s a comparative table:

Futures Contract Comparison

Feature	Quarterly Futures
Expiry Date	Fixed, end of quarter
Funding Rate	No Funding Rate
Basis	Exhibits basis – the difference between the futures price and the spot price
Contango/Backwardation	Prone to contango/backwardation
Settlement	Cash or Physical Delivery

• • Contango and Backwardation:** These terms describe the relationship between futures prices and spot prices.

• **Contango:** When futures prices are *higher* than spot prices. This typically occurs when there’s an expectation of future price increases. Quarterly futures often trade in contango, especially further out from the settlement date.
• **Backwardation:** When futures prices are *lower* than spot prices. This indicates an expectation of future price decreases.

Perpetual futures use funding rates to keep the contract price anchored to the spot price. Quarterly futures, without funding rates, are more susceptible to contango or backwardation, particularly as the settlement date approaches. Basis trading strategies attempt to profit from these discrepancies.

Benefits of Trading Quarterly Futures

• **Predictable Expiry:** The fixed expiry date provides certainty, allowing traders to plan their strategies accordingly.
• **No Funding Rates:** Traders avoid the cost (or benefit) of funding rates, which can eat into profits (or add to them) in perpetual futures. This simplicity is attractive to some traders.
• **Hedging Opportunities:** Quarterly futures are useful for hedging. For example, a miner expecting to sell Bitcoin in three months can use a quarterly futures contract to lock in a price, mitigating price risk.
• **Insight into Market Sentiment:** The shape of the quarterly futures curve (the prices of contracts expiring in different quarters) can provide valuable insights into market expectations. A steeper contango curve might suggest strong bullish sentiment, while a flattening curve could indicate uncertainty. Order flow analysis can help interpret these signals.
• **Reduced Risk of Flash Liquidation (compared to Perpetual Futures):** While still present, the risk of being liquidated due to sudden price swings is arguably slightly lower in quarterly futures than perpetual futures, as the contract naturally expires.

Risks of Trading Quarterly Futures

• **Expiry Risk:** If you hold a futures contract to expiry, you are exposed to the risk of significant price movements on the settlement date.
• **Basis Risk:** The difference between the futures price and the spot price (the basis) can fluctuate, impacting your profitability.
• **Leverage Risk:** Futures trading involves leverage, which magnifies both profits and losses. Incorrectly managed leverage can lead to rapid account depletion. Risk management is paramount.
• **Liquidity Risk:** While major quarterly futures contracts generally have good liquidity, contracts further out in time or for less popular cryptocurrencies may experience lower trading volumes, making it difficult to enter or exit positions at desired prices. Always check trading volume before entering a position.
• **Potential for Large Price Gaps at Settlement:** Unexpected news or events can cause significant price gaps between the futures price and the spot price at settlement, leading to unfavorable outcomes.

Trading Strategies for Quarterly Futures

Several strategies can be employed when trading quarterly futures:

• **Trend Following:** Identify established trends in the spot market and take long or short positions in quarterly futures contracts accordingly. Moving averages and MACD are common indicators used for trend following.
• **Mean Reversion:** Capitalize on temporary price deviations from the average. This strategy involves buying when the price dips below the mean and selling when it rises above. Bollinger Bands are often used to identify overbought and oversold conditions.
• **Calendar Spreads:** Profit from the difference in price between quarterly futures contracts expiring in different months. For example, buying a March contract and selling a June contract.
• **Basis Trading:** Exploit discrepancies between the futures price and the spot price. This requires a deep understanding of market dynamics and arbitrage opportunities.
• **Hedging:** Use quarterly futures to offset the price risk of existing cryptocurrency holdings.

Choosing an Exchange

When selecting an exchange to trade quarterly futures, consider the following factors:

• **Liquidity:** Higher liquidity ensures tighter spreads and easier order execution.
• **Security:** Choose an exchange with robust security measures to protect your funds.
• **Fees:** Compare trading fees across different exchanges.
• **Contract Selection:** Ensure the exchange offers the quarterly futures contracts you’re interested in trading.
• **Margin Requirements:** Understand the margin requirements for different contracts.
• **Regulatory Compliance:** Select an exchange that adheres to relevant regulatory standards.
• **Available Tools:** Consider the charting tools, order types, and other features offered by the exchange.

Popular exchanges offering quarterly futures include: Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Deribit.

Advanced Concepts & Further Learning

• **Implied Volatility:** Understanding implied volatility can help assess the potential price swings of quarterly futures contracts.
• **Open Interest:** The total number of outstanding futures contracts. Changes in open interest can signal shifts in market sentiment. Open interest analysis is a key skill.
• **Futures Curve Analysis:** Analyzing the shape of the futures curve can provide insights into market expectations.
• **Gamma and Vega:** These are "Greeks" that measure the sensitivity of an option or futures contract to changes in underlying price and volatility respectively.
• **Correlation Trading:** Identifying correlations between different cryptocurrencies can be used for diversification and risk management with quarterly futures.

Resources for further learning:

• Babypips.com: A comprehensive resource for learning about financial markets.
• Investopedia.com: Provides clear definitions and explanations of financial terms.
• Exchange Documentation: Binance Futures, Bybit Futures, OKX Futures, Deribit – Each exchange provides detailed documentation on its futures contracts.

Recommended Futures Trading Platforms

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Bitget Futures	USDT-margined contracts	Open account
BitMEX	Cryptocurrency platform, leverage up to 100x	BitMEX

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