Bitcoin Futures Analysis BTCUSDT - November 9 2024

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - November 9, 2024

1. Introduction

On November 9, 2024, the BTC/USDT pair is showing stable growth. The current price is $76,412, representing a 0.52% increase from the previous close. The intraday high reached $77,251, while the low was $75,666. Trading volume over the last 24 hours was $40 billion, reflecting strong interest from market participants.

The recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 0.25% has positively impacted the cryptocurrency market, encouraging active buying from investors.

2. Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe:

• Moving Averages (MA and EMA):

 * MA50: $73,500
 * MA200: $69,000
 * EMA50: $74,000
 * EMA200: $70,000

Hourly Timeframe:

• Moving Averages (MA and EMA):

 * MA50: $76,000
 * MA200: $75,500
 * EMA50: $76,100
 * EMA200: $75,600

• Indicators:

 * RSI: 68 (indicating an overbought zone)
 * MACD: Positive histogram, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend
 * Fibonacci Levels: Correction at the 0.618 level from the recent peak indicates potential support around $75,000
 * Bollinger Bands: Expansion of the bands indicates increased volatility
 * ATR: $1,500, indicating significant price fluctuations
 * VWAP: The current price is above VWAP, reflecting positive market sentiment

• Elliott Wave Analysis: BTC/USDT is currently in the third impulsive wave, suggesting possible continuation of the upward movement
• Pattern: Formation of a "bullish flag" pattern on the hourly chart confirms the likelihood of continued upward momentum

3. Volume Analysis

• Open Interest: According to Coinglass, the open interest for BTC futures stands at $6 billion, with long positions dominating
• Liquidations: In the last 24 hours, positions worth $200 million were liquidated, indicating high market volatility
• Options: The next options expiration date is November 15, with a total volume of $1.2 billion, which could impact short-term price dynamics
• Bitcoin ETF: The trading volume for Bitcoin ETFs has increased by 12% over the past week, reflecting growing interest from institutional investors

4. Forecast and Strategy

Based on the current analysis, opening a long position is recommended.

• Entry Point: If the price breaks above $77,000
• Exit Point: Upon reaching $79,000
• Stop-loss: Set at $75,000

With a capital of 1000 USDT and leverage of 20x, the potential profit is $400, with a risk of $200.

5. Fundamental Analysis

• Macroeconomic Factors: The Fed’s rate cut has encouraged investors to turn towards riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies
• Large Investors’ Activity: According to Cryptometer.io, large investors have increased their BTC positions by 6% over the past week, reflecting confidence in continued growth

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