BTC/USDT Terminshandelsanalys - 12 oktober 2025

Market Overview

As of 12 October 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of bearish momentum. The current spot price stands at $110,557.40, while the futures price is slightly lower at $110,531.30, indicating a mild backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has experienced a decline of 2.11%, with the intraday high reaching $112,991.16 and the low dipping to $109,561.59. This price action suggests increased volatility and potential continuation of the downtrend.

Technical Analysis

Let’s dive into the key technical indicators to better understand the market dynamics.

Moving Averages

The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $114,854.12, while the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the same period is at $114,120.32. Both indicators are above the current price, signaling a bearish trend. The price is struggling to break above these levels, which now act as resistance.

Relative Strength Index

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.63, indicating that the market is approaching oversold territory but still has room for further downside before reaching extreme levels.

MACD

The MACD indicator shows a value of -1,185.53, with the histogram trending downward. This confirms the bearish momentum and suggests that sellers are in control.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using the recent swing high ($112,991.16) and swing low ($109,561.59), the key Fibonacci retracement levels are:

Level	Price
23.6%	$111,234.12
38.2%	$111,890.45
50%	$112,276.38
61.8%	$112,662.30

The price is currently hovering near the 23.6% retracement level, which could act as resistance.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. However, the bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility.

Average True Range

The Average True Range (ATR) is at 2,345.67, reflecting heightened market volatility. Traders should adjust their position sizes accordingly.

Volume Weighted Average Price

The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is at $111,890.45, which aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This reinforces its significance as a resistance zone.

Elliott Wave Analysis

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be in Wave 3 of a larger bearish impulse. This wave is typically the strongest and longest, suggesting further downside potential.

Trading Strategy

Given the current technical setup, here are my recommendations:

Position

Short position is favored due to the bearish momentum and key resistance levels overhead.

Entry Point

An ideal entry point would be near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $111,890.45, which coincides with the VWAP.

Stop Loss

Set a stop loss just above the 50% Fibonacci level at $112,276.38 to minimize risk.

Take Profit

Target the recent swing low at $109,561.59 as the initial take-profit level. A secondary target could be the lower Bollinger Band at $108,900.00.

Position Size

Allocate no more than 2% of your trading capital to this position, given the high volatility indicated by the ATR.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, providing a favorable setup.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT futures market is exhibiting strong bearish momentum, supported by key technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, MACD, and Elliott Wave analysis. Traders should consider short positions with careful risk management. Always remember to conduct your own research and adjust strategies based on real-time market conditions.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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Join the community

Subscribe to our Telegram channel @strategybin. The most favorable exchange rate for VISA to cryptocurrencies..